KUALA LUMPUR, Malaysia -- The July 14 fight between Lucas Matthysse (39-4, 36 KOs) and Manny Pacquiao (59-7-2, 38 KOs) was dangerously close to falling apart. The original plan was for this fight to be an ESPN pay-per-view but after Pacquiao's promotional company, MP Promotions, missed deadline after deadline the fight was relegated to streaming on ESPN+. On the line on Saturday night will be Matthysse's WBA "regular" welterweight title.
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| Matthysse admiring his knockout of Tewa Kiram |
Put simply, Matthysse is a puncher. His footwork isn't the best and he doesn't have the fastest of hands but he has power. Matthysse has made his bones as a rugged fighter who comes forward and lands heavy leather. He fights out of the orthodox stance and works behind a stiff jab. Following that jab Matthysse has a dangerous right hand, but his best punch is his left hook. He can drop opponents with that left hook to the body or upstairs and although he has clearly fallen off a bit in recent years he still carries knockout power.
While Matthysse is a four loss career fight he could easily only have two defeats. His losses to Zab Judah and Devon Alexander and both controversial and even his loss to Danny Garcia was very tight. Matthysse is at his best when he has an opponent who likes exchanging leather as much as he does and he's turned in special fights against the likes of Ruslan Provodnikov and and John Molina Jr. In fact his 2014 against Molina was Big Time Boxing's Fight of the Year and his 2015 bout with Provodnikov earned runner-up honors in the same category. More recently though Matthysse looked completely lost against Viktor Postol and followed that up by sitting out all of 2016. Since his return he has gone 2-0 with two knockouts but he hasn't exactly looked great leading up to those knockouts.
Pacquiao is a southpaw and is one of the more awkward fighters the sport has scene. What is awkward about him is his style. He throws punches from angles most fighters would never dream of and throughout his career he has been an offensive dynamo who has racked up plenty of highlight reel knockouts. While has hands have slowed in recent years he still has plenty of speed and in his prime has some of the fastest hands in boxing. Pacquiao still has a skillful jab and good right hook. Along with those weapons also comes a dangerous left hand and Pacquiao has always been the type of fighter whose offense is his defense. However, that offense has fallen off in recent years and Pacquiao clearly no longer has that killer instinct and his last knockout came way back in 2009.
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| Pacquiao catching Jeff Horn with a stinging jab |
The career Pacquiao has put together will probably never be matched. Other fighters will surpass his win total and some will finish with many less losses but few, if any, will capture titles in eight divisions. Pacquiao captured his first title as a flyweight and was successfully able to go up in weight to capture a title as high as the junior middleweight division. Among Pacquiao's victims are legendary names such as Marco Antonio Barrera, Juan Manuel Marquez, Erik Morales, Oscar De La Hoya, Ricky Hatton, Miguel Cotto, and Shane Mosley to name many but far from all. It wouldn't be hyperbole to call Pacquiao's career legendary and historic. He is coming off a loss to Jeff Horn, although that loss was widely criticized.
In a shocking move Pacquiao has chosen to split from longtime trainer Freddie Roach. There is no telling how a split like that could help or hurt Pacquiao, but placing any blame on Roach for the bad decisions by judges against Horn would be misguided. Saturday's fight has the chance to be special because both Matthysse and Pacquiao love to trade leather. Look for Pacquiao to use his superior speed and footwork in this bout. He should get in and out quickly where he can tag Matthysse and then get out of range. Matthysse needs to make sure he's cutting off the ring and not giving Pacquiao escape routes. If Matthysse can trap Pacquiao against the ropes and in the corners he will find success. However, if Pacquiao can keep this fight in the center of the ring his speed should help him control the action.
PREDICTION: Lucas Matthysse is a good fighter with more than enough power to stop Manny Pacquiao. He's the slower fighter though and he will have trouble launching his own attack against the quick explosions of offense from Pacquiao. Pacquiao hasn't scored a knockout since 2009 and that won't change on Saturday but he will do enough to score the unanimous decision victory.
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