HBO Fight Preview

Francisco Vargas vs. Miguel Berchelt

Any serious boxing fan will tell you that a Francisco Vargas fight is must see TV.  He has been one part of the last two Fight of the Year winners and both fighters were unforgettable battles.  This Saturday will be must see TV again when Vargas takes on the power punching Miguel Berchelt on HBO.  That fight is scheduled to go 12 rounds with Vargas' WBC junior lightweight title on the line.  

Vargas is anTh exciting as they come

Vargas is an orthodox fighter who doesn't mind eating two or three punches to land one power shot of his own.  While many might just label Vargas as a puncher he actually does have some skills to go along with his brawling style.  From the outside Vargas has a nice jab that he will often double up but things really get interesting when he goes to work on the inside.  From the inside Vargas loves to rip left hooks to the body and he also has a dangerous right head that he will throw straight or overhand.  On defense Vargas will square up too much which gets him in trouble but he has walked through fire to win fights before and he has never been stopped as a pro.

Vargas is coming off of a draw with Orlando Salido but that fight was the 2017 Fight of the Year.  After that brutal fight Vargas took some time off and hasn't fought since that June, 2016 bout.  Before that draw Vargas had won 20 fights in a row following the only other blemish on his resume, another draw that came very early in his career.  His career record now stands at 23-0-2 with a strong 17 knockouts and he has really made a name for himself in the last two years because of his incredibly exciting fights and his tremendous show of heart.  Now Vargas will have to contend with a young power puncher who is hungry for his title.

Berchelt has some very heavy hands

Berchelt is an orthodox fighter with good pop on his punches.  While Berchelt has a solid jab his straight right hand isn't great because he often pushes it when he's on the outside.  However, at closer range Berchelt puts more behind that right hand and finds more success with it and he also throws a good uppercut with the right hand.  His best punch though is his heavy left hook which can end a fight if it lands clean.  Defensively Berchelt isn't great and in fact his line career loss came via a first round knockout.

This will be, by far, the biggest fight of Berchelt's career.  The young 25-year-old Berchelt has built his career against unknown and over matched competition and he has never faced anyone as close to as good as Vargas.  The record of Berchelt stands at 30-1 with an incredible 27 knockouts but this will be a new level for Berchelt and there is no telling how he will handle such a dangerous opponent.

This could be another excellent fight involving Vargas where the action goes back and forth all night.  While Vargas is the more skilled fighter it is Berchelt who has the higher knockout percentage and since he is younger he has taken less punishment than Vargas has.  This seems like one of those fights where defense won't be on anyone's mind and whoever lets their hands go more will probably win.  The one wrinkle is that Vargas is more of a boxer-puncher so he could chose to box more and bang less in an effort to beat Berchelt.  

PREDICTION: This will be a fun fight but it won't be punching power that wins it, it will be intelligence.  Miguel Berchelt will come in looking to knock Francisco Vargas out but that knockout will never come.  Instead Vargas will use his superior boxing skills to pick and chose his spots as he fights his way to a unanimous decision victory.  

Takashi Miura vs. Miguel "Mickey" Roman

Satuday's co-feature on HBO will involve one half of the 2015 Fight of the Year, Takashi Miura.  Miura will take on Miguel "Mickey" Roman in a fight scheduled to go 12 rounds and it will act as a WBC junior lightweight title eliminator.  That means the winner of this fight will have a shot at the headliner of this card, Francisco Vargas.  Certainly many fans will be hoping that Miura wins, setting up a rematch of his and Vargas' fantastic 2015 fight.

Miura is an all action fighter

Miura is a southpaw fighter with plus power.  Like many other Japanese fighters Miura isn't opposed to a good brawl and usually makes for very exciting fights.  Don't expect to see Miura jab much because he usually spends entire fights in the pocket where his uppercuts can do serious damage.  Also, Miura has a nice left hook and a very strong left hand that can do damage as a straight punch or overhand.  Defensively Miura is definitely vulnerable because he does spend so much time in the pocket and in his two career losses both have been by knockout.

This will only be Miura's second fight in the United States.  Besides his fight with Vargas all of Miura's fights have come in his native Japan outside of one in Mexico.  The last time Miura was stateside he lost so he will look to reverse that come Saturday night.  His career record stands at 30-3-2 and he has a strong 23 knockouts.  However, his opponent Roman is not usually a knockout victim so it would take a lot for Miura to stop him early.

Roman has already had 67 career fights

Roman is an orthodox fighter who, much like Miura, loves to stand in the pocket and trade heavy leather.  He doesn't jab much but that is because he spends so much time at close range.  What Roman does like to do is let his hands go and he has a big left hook that is definitely his best weapon.  Along with that left hook Roman has a right hand he uses in a variety of ways and they can all do damage.  

Currently Roman is riding an 18-fight win streak and a six fight knockout streak.  His career record is 56-11 with 43 knockouts and in those 11 losses he has only been knocked out once.  However, Roman seemed to be in his prime around 2012 and lately has not faced a very high level of opposition.  Roman does have a ton of experience with 67 fights at only 31-years-old but those 67 fights means a lot of wear and tear which could be trouble against Miura.

Like the main event, the co-feature should be an action packed fight.  While both men started their careers in 2003 Roman has almost double the amount of fights as Miura.  While that gives him the edge in experience it also means he's taken a lot more punishment in the same amount of time.  Miura loves to swing for the fences as does Roman so whoever can push the action and stay active in the later rounds could win the fight.

PREDICTION: Miguel "Mickey" Roman has been around for a long time but that won't help him come Saturday night.  Instead all that wear and tear will work against him and the power punching Takashi Miura will do enough to get the unanimous decision win.