HBO PPV Fight Preview (Main Event)

Saul "Canelo" Alvarez vs. Liam Smith

This Saturday on HBO pay-per-view Saul "Canelo" Alvarez will move back down in weight to challenge junior middleweight titleholder Liam Smith.  Since winning the lineal middleweight championship Alvarez is yet to actually fight at the middleweight limit and it is well known how hard it has been for Alvarez to make 154 pounds.  For Alvarez this will be another big pay-per-view fight but for Smith this is new territory and without a doubt the biggest fight of his career.  One thing is for sure, Smith won't give up his WBO World junior middleweight title easily.

Alvarez is fresh off a KO of the Year candidate

Alvarez works out of the orthodox stance and everything starts from his jab.  The jab of Alvarez is used as a weapon and it is a stiff punch that can stop opponents on the way in.  The best punch Alvarez throws is his left hook and it can do damage to the body and turn an opponents lights out if it lands clean upstairs.  The same thing can be said for his right hand which is dangerous as a straight punch or over the top.  Defensively Alvarez doesn't move that well but he has a rock solid chin that can withstand a lot of punishment.  Despite having power Alvarez isn't an overly aggressive fighter and chooses to counter punch instead.  While Alvarez is the heavy favorite it will be interesting to see how he handles going back to 154 pounds.

It is almost unbelievable how many times Alvarez has fought since he is still only 26 years old.  His career record is 47-1-1 with 33 knockouts and his bout with Smith will be the 50th of his career, a career that has already spanned 11 years.  There is no denying that Alvarez has some very big names on his resume but some of those fights came after his opponents were at their best like Shane Mosley or James Kirkland.  The three fights to pay attention to when looking at Alvarez's resume are his win over a prime Austin Trout, his loss to Floyd Mayweather, and his questionable win over Erislandy Lara.  It is clear that Alvarez has fought better opponents than Smith but anything can happen inside the squared circle.

Smith will have to overcome the odds to win

Smith, who hails from the U.K., fights out of the orthodox stance.  Going by the nickname "Beefy," Smith fights behind a high guard and loves to pump his crisp jab.  That jab is not only accurate but it lands with some pop.  Along with that jab Smith will also throw an overhand right but his short left hook is the better punch.  Smith usually fights from the outside but when he gets in the  pocket he does a very nice job of landing his uppercuts.  When it comes to power Smith will be at a disadvantage in this fight and he isn't a very busy fighter either, which he may need to change in order to beat Alvarez.

It really isn't even fair to compare Smith's resume to that of Alvarez's because he hasn't fought the same level of competition.  Despite being two years older than Alvarez, Smith actually turned pro three years later.  To date he holds a record of 23-0-1 with 13 knockouts but he lacks any elite names on his resume.  Smith has fought some quality opponents but Alvarez has been in the ring with a few fighters surely headed to the Hall of Fame.  If Smith were to beat Alvarez it would not only be a massive upset but also the biggest win of Smith's career.  It also has to be noted that Smith has never fought outside of his native U.K. so there is no telling how he will handle fighting stateside in a massive football stadium.

Perhaps the biggest question in this fight is who will take the lead?  Alvarez likes to let his opponent lead so he can pick his spots and counter punch.  However, Smith isn't a very aggressive fighter and usually waits behind a tight guard to let his punches go too.  One fighter will have to make the decision to take the lead but for two fighters not used to doing that the one who does may be thrown off his game.  Also, both fighters have good power, although Alvarez's is more of the one punch variety.  However, Smith has knocked out his last eight opponents while Alvarez has stopped three of his last five.  Alvarez is definitely the favorite for a reason but Smith is a seriously live dog.

PREDICTION: Liam Smith is the one bringing the title to the ring and he won't want to give it up easily.  Smith will come to fight and will give a good account of himself but that won't be enough to win his U.S. debut.  Saul "Canelo" Alvarez has the heavier hands and has fought at a higher level and he will own the late rounds on his way to a 10th round stoppage of Smith.