HBO Fight Preview

Miguel Cotto vs. Daniel Geale

Boxing is never an easy sport and it seems that there is always some controversy or drama brewing, like there is with this Saturday's fight on HBO.  The bout is between Miguel Cotto who happens to be the lineal middleweight champion of the world, a title he got after demolishing Sergio Martinez.  As every boxing head knows the middleweight division is 160 lbs. but this fight will not be.  Cotto flexed his muscles as the A-side of the promotion and is forcing his opponent Daniel Geale, a true middleweight, to fight at a catchweight of 157 lbs., which certainly favors the naturally smaller Cotto.  So the two prizefighters will do battle over the course of 12 rounds for Cotto's WBC middleweight title and lineal champion status.

Cotto's last fight was a brutal one for Martinez

Cotto has gone through more trainers than most people go through underwear, but he has seemed to have found a great match in Freddie Roach.  Roach has taken Cotto back to his roots as a fighter who punishes the body and Cotto has gone 2-0 under him.  Cotto is an orthodox fighter who likes to crouch down and come straight ahead behind his jab.  Because of his low stance Cotto often jabs up when throwing head shots and he has always been very good at landing his stiff jab to the body.  Along with that jab Cotto has a nice overhand right but his money punch is his left hook, especially to the body.  That hook to the body takes a lot out of opponents and it could be deadly against Geale who is rumored to have been struggling to make weight.

When it comes to Puerto Rican boxers Cotto has been one of the best two ever lace up a pair of gloves.  He only has four career losses and they all came against top fighters in Floyd Mayweather, Austin Trout, Manny Pacquiao, and Antonio Margarito who most people felt had loaded hand wraps in that first meeting.  2012 was a tough year for Cotto who lost to Trout and Mayweather but after that he teamed up with Roach and hasn't lost.  For his career Cotto has gone 39-4 with a very strong 32 knockouts.  While he hasn't been very active, only fighting once a year in 2013 and 2014, he has been impressive.  He beat Delvin Rodriguez as a junior middleweight then fought Sergio Martinez who was always an undersized middleweight.  Now Cotto is taking on a fighter in Geale who is probably the biggest fighter he has ever faced catchweight or no catchweight.  

Geale didn't fare so well in his last big fight

Geale is also an orthodox fighter and he shows good footwork and a fairly aggressive style in the ring.  Geale is usually able to throw his combinations nicely and he likes to start them off with his accurate jab.  The best punch that Geale has is probably his straight right hand and he, like Cotto, does a tremendous job of attacking and landing to the body.  Not only will Geale have a 3-inch height advantage against Cotto but his hands may also be a tad quicker.  Also both men cut off the ring well and Geale likes to fight on the inside which also happens to be where Cotto likes to put his work in.

Most of Geale's fights have come in his native Australia, but that hasn't stopped him from putting together a nice resume.  Geale's record is 31-3 but he only has 16 knockouts to his name.  In the past Geale could hang his hat on the fact that he had never been knocked out but that changed last year when he suffered a 3rd round stoppage against Gennady Golovkin.  Despite that loss Geale does have some nice wins, most notably against Anthony Mundine and Felix Sturm.  There is not doubt that Golovkin was the best opponent that Geale has faced and Cotto has had an even longer and more impressive career.  

This fight has interest written all over it.  There is the drama surrounding the catchweight and then there will be the action in the ring.  Geale is the bigger man and is used to campaigning at middleweight but he may be drained from trying to drop so much weight, which would give Cotto the big advantage, especially since he loves to kill the body.  However, Geale is taller and longer and while he usually likes to fight on the inside if he can keep Cotto at the end of his jab and straight right hand he may pull off the upset.

PREDICTION: Even though Daniel Geale is the bigger man and a quality fighter he will not be better than Miguel Cotto come Saturday night.  This fight may actually slightly resemble the Cotto-Martinez fight in that Geale will try to stick and move but Cotto will break him down.  Each fighter will have his moments but eventually Cotto's body work will be too much and he will win the fight by the way of 10th round stoppage.