HBO Fight Preview

Saul "Canelo" Alvarez vs. James Kirkland

The throngs of casual boxing fans who descended on the sport last weekend were left disappointed by what many of them deemed to be a "boring" fight.  It is too bad those casual fans won't stick around for another week, because if they do they might witness a war.  Saturday night on HBO, Saul "Canelo" Alvarez will take on James Kirkland in a 12-round, junior middleweight bout.  The fight is set to take place at the home of the Houston Astros, Minute Maid Park, with an expected attendance somewhere around 40,000 which just goes to prove that boxing is far from dead.

"Canelo" was lucky to get the win against Lara

Fans of Alvarez love him for his quintessential Mexican style.  Alvarez is an aggressive fighter, albeit not overly, and he likes to stand a trade.  The Mexican star fights out of the orthodox stance and likes to counter his opponents.  His jab is stiff and he follows it up with a good straight right hand.  Alvarez will also often throw an overhand right which is wild but heavy.  The best punch for the young pugilist is probably his left hook, which he uses to kill the body of opponents.  Alvarez doesn't have blazing hand speed and he also isn't a one-punch knockout type of fighter.  Instead, Alvarez will break opponents down over the course of a fight with his body attack.  Defensively Alvarez has a great chin and has never been down but he will take a lot of clean punches because he has slow feet that don't allow him to dance out of danger.  The biggest knock against Alvarez is his conditioning.  He has had difficulty making the junior middleweight limit of 154 lbs. and he always fades late in fights and often takes rounds off.  Still, even with his stamina issues Alvarez is a tough fighter and has wins against some very tough opponents.

The apex of Alvarez's career was supposed to be a win over Floyd Mayweather.  Instead Alvarez got taken to school by the slick boxer and had to go back to the drawing board.  In his two fights since that loss Alvarez has looked good, stopping a sluggish Alfredo Angulo in the 10th round of their 2014 fight and then getting a split decision win over slick boxer Erislandy Lara that same year.  While many questioned the authenticity of Alvarez's win over Lara he did show that he made adjustments since his fight against Mayweather.  The Mayweather loss remains the only real blemish on an otherwise outstanding record of 44-1-1 with 31 knockouts.  Alvarez may not be a top ten pound for pound fighter yet but he is climbing the ladder and his willingness to take on any opponent should be celebrated.  Come Saturday night Alvarez will find out if he made a smart choice by choosing Kirkland for his opponent.

Kirkland looked like he could have killed Tapia

If Alvarez wants to beat Kirkland he may have to do it in the first few rounds.  Kirkland typically enters the ring wearing a full robe with towels draped over his head, he does this because he starts off fights so cold.  For whatever reason, Kirkland has a hard time staying warm as he enters the ring and always starts fights without a drop of sweat on his body.  That is why it usually takes Kirkland a few rounds to warm up, and until he does he is vulnerable.  However, once Kirkland does warm up he is a very dangerous man.  Plain and simple, Kirkland is a killer in the ring.  Once he locks onto an opponent he doesn't let go.  Kirkland is a southpaw who doesn't have very fast hands.  He likes to throw one-two combinations and both of the punches land hard, as all Kirkland punches do.  Kirkland has good power in both hands and can end fights with his right hook or overhand left.  Despite his stellar record many people are not believers in Kirkland when he doesn't train with Ann Wolfe.

Kirkland has only lost one fight as a pro, a stunning 1st round knockout where he was dropped three times against the light hitting Nobuhiro Ishida.  That was also a fight where Kirkland did not train with or have Ann Wolfe in his corner.  On Saturday night Wolfe won't be there either which has many people worried.  Still, whenever Kirkland does fight, which isn't very often, his last fight was in December of 2013, he is must see TV.  Already in his career Kirkland turned in a slugfest with Angulo and then looked like he was on the verge of ruining Glen Tapia's life in his last fight.  As it stands now Kirkland has a record of 32-1 with 28 knockouts and this fight against Alvarez is by far the most important of his career.

This fight really depends on which Kirkland shows up.  If fans get the Kirkland who fought Ishida then it should be an easy night for Alvarez.  However, if the Kirkland who fought Angulo shows up, the one who will walk through hell to win a fight, then Alvarez might find himself in some serious trouble, especially if he fades late.  Hopefully for the fans the latter Kirkland shows up, because if he does this will be a toe-to-toe war.

PREDICTION: If James Kirkland was training with Ann Wolfe this prediction might have been different.  This will be a brutal back and fourth fight that could easily end at any moment.  However, it will be Saul "Canelo" Alvarez who fights smarter and moves just enough to avoid getting stopped.  Alvarez will win this fight by the way of majority decision.  

Joseph Diaz Jr. vs. Giovanni Delgado

The co-feature of Saturday's HBO card was supposed to be a bout between rising prospect Frankie Gomez and veteran Humberto Soto.  However, Gomez who has had problems outside the ring, failed to make weight, missing it by 6.5 pounds which led to the fight being cancelled.  That was a huge blown opportunity for Gomez who could have used the exposure of being on a Saul "Canelo" Alvarez HBO card and fighting in front of a packed house of 40,000 in Houston's Minute Maid Park.  Instead Joseph Diaz Jr. will get that exposure as he takes on Giovanni Delgado in a 10-round bout in the featherweight division.

Diaz may be a star in a few short years

Diaz has been exceptional as a pro.  He seems to do everything well in the ring, which is impressive since he is only 22 years old.  Diaz fights out of the southpaw stance where he will use a decent jab to set up his power punches, and he has shown good power in his young career.  The young fighter throws a very nice right hook and has a heavy left hand and his dedication to putting in body work is impressive.  Defensively Diaz isn't spectacular but he isn't bad by any means, and so far his offense has been so good that it hasn't mattered much.  While Diaz has looked stellar it has come against sub par competition, a category Delgado probably finds himself in.  

Since he looks like a superstar in the making, Diaz has been brought along at a slow, intelligent pace.  Rushing a fighter could ruin him so Diaz's team is playing it smart while increasing his exposure.  As a pro Diaz has been perfect with a record of 15-0 with 10 knockouts.  Fans are eager to see how Diaz will fair against better competition but they won't find that out on Saturday because Delgado does not represent a step up for Diaz.

Delgado is a virtual unknown in the U.S.

Delgado will not be a superstar.  He may find himself a few nice wins but his ceiling is much lower than Diaz's.  Delgado is a wild fight who doesn't put much behind his jab out of the orthodox stance.  He does have some pop on his punches, especially when he lands his left hook.  However, that hook usually comes in a mile wide.  The the punch that comes in the most accurate from Delgado is his straight right hand, but even if it lands all night Delgado may still be in trouble in this fight.

As a pro Delgado hasn't been overly impressive.  He has a record of 15-2 with 9 knockouts and his two losses came against fighters with records of 5-3-1 and 4-3-2 and he was stopped in one of those fights.  Diaz will be a huge step up for Delgado whose most recent opponent was 6-6.

This fight will be all Diaz from start to finish.  Delgado may find a home for his straight right hand but it probably won't bother Diaz that much.  The only real shot Delgado has to win is to land a left hook that Diaz doesn't see, and don't count on that happening.

PREDICTION: Every fighter has a punchers chance but Giovanni Delgado may not have enough power to even have that.  Joseph Diaz. Jr. is going to dominate this fight for every round and finish Delgado off with a 5th round stoppage.