HBO Fight Preview (Main Event)

Sergio Martinez vs. Miguel Cotto

Don't let casual fans fool you into thinking that the only mega fight in boxing would be between Floyd Mayweather and Manny Pacquiao.  That would be the biggest fight for the sport but make no mistake about it Sergio Martinez going up against Miguel Cotto is a mega fight.  The number three ranked pound for pound fighter in the world Martinez and Puerto Rican superstar Cotto will be fighting in the middleweight division but at a catchweight of 159 pounds.  Cotto will be the challenger in this fight trying to take the WBC title from Martinez.  Cotto will also be trying to take the title of lineal middleweight champion of the world from Martinez that he earned when he beat Kelly Pavlik.

Martinez after a close win in his native Argentina

Martinez is one of the most awkward fighters in the sport.  He is a southpaw who fights with his hands low almost as if to dare opponents to take a swing so he can counter them.  Before he became a boxer Martinez was a soccer player and cyclist and that shows in his quick feet in the ring.  Martinez also has a very good jab and throws a lot of them followed up by a straight left hand.  Something else Martinez does very well is feint which gets his opponent out of position and sets up his monster left hand, the punch he put Paul Williams to sleep with.  The biggest question heading into this fight is the knee of Martinez.  He has suffered injuries in his past two bouts and has also been knocked down in his past three.  In his last bout against Martin Murray he looked a little slower than usual and needs to be 100% healthy if he wants to beat Cotto.

Not many fighters have come from relative obscurity to become one of the best fighters in the world but that is exactly what Martinez has done.  Fans really took notice in 2009 when Martinez lost to Williams but dropped him and looked very good.  He followed that loss up by picking apart Pavlik and then knocked Williams out cold.  Martinez has always fought the best and has never taken the easy way out which makes his career record of 51-2-2 with 28 knockouts even more impressive.  Martinez seems to have a genuine hatred of Cotto and a win would not only silence the mostly Puerto Rican crowd at Madison Square Garden but also cement Martinez's legacy of being one of the best fighters of his era.

Cotto seems to have found his left hook again

When discussing the style of Cotto you have to start with his famous left hook to the body.  In his prime the Cotto left hook to the body was arguably the most famous punch in boxing and a punch every single one of his opponents had to worry about.  While Martinez is know for his quick feet and movement in the ring Cotto is known for coming straight ahead behind his jab which he likes to stick to the body.  Cotto also likes to crouch down on his way in and jab at an upward angle to his opponents head.  Cotto also has a nice overhand right but his best weapon is clearly his left hook.  On defense Cotto doesn't do much moving and because he likes to come straight forward and fight on the inside takes his fair share of clean punches.  

Much like Martinez, Cotto has always fought the best.  Unlike Martinez when Cotto fights the best he typically losses.  Cotto has fought the likes of Paulie Malignaggi, Zab Judah, Shane Mosley, Antonio Margarito twice, Manny Pacquiao, Floyd Mayweather, and Austin Trout but most of his losses came after 2008.  That was the year Cotto fought Margarito for the first time and was badly bloodied in a fight most people now think Margarito was using loaded hand wraps for.  Still even with his high profile losses Cotto has remained a star and amassed a record of 38-4 with an impressive 31 knockouts.  Cotto has switched trainers often in his career and in recent years seemed to get away from his powerful body attack.  However in his last bout he teamed up with famed trainer Freddie Roach and completely destroyed Delvin Rodriguez.  With Roach in his corner Cotto is looking like his old self but beating Rodriguez is far different than beating Martinez.

If there is one thing this fight is hinging on it is the right knee of Martinez.  Martinez will be taller and bigger than Cotto who will be moving up for this fight but if he can't move the way he is accustomed to he could be in for a long night.  Martinez looked a step slow against Murray and was dropped and if he looks slow against Cotto the Puerto Rican fighter may be able to get inside and put in good work to the body.  However if the right knee of Martinez is 100% or close to it his faster hands and great movement in the ring should allow him to outbox the slower Cotto.

PREDICTION: Miguel Cotto always comes straight forward and Sergio Martinez should be able to pick him off with the jab and keep him at a safe distance.  Cotto may land a few body shots but it won't be enough to slow Martinez down completely.  Martinez will be the bigger faster fighter on Saturday and he will win this fight via 11th round stoppage.