HBO Fight Preview (December 7th)

Guillermo Rigondeaux vs. Joseph Agbeko

It has been a long wait for fans of Guillermo Rigondeaux who thought they would be seeing much more of him following his dominant performance over Nonito Donaire.  Finally there patience has paid off as Rigondeaux will once again step between the ropes, this time against Joseph Agbeko who looks to upset the slick Cuban and take his title belt in this 12 round, junior featherweight fight.  The reason it took so long for Rigondeaux to get back in action was because HBO wasn't all that excited to put a defensive counter puncher in a prime television slot but fans of the sweet science are happy they finally relented. 

Rigondeaux is ranked #4 P4P after only 12 fights

Most casual boxing fans are only interested in brawls and while big time boxing fans also love a good brawl they also appreciate watching a masterful fighter like Rigondeaux.  When Rigondeaux is on his game he can box circles around almost any other fighter on the planet.  He had one of the most storied amateur careers in the history of boxing and all that experience really shows through during his professional fights.  Rigondeaux is a very patient southpaw fighter who measures his opponent with his jab and than unleashes lightning fast combinations.  He also has pretty good power for a defensive counter puncher and always knows when to flash it.  Rigondeaux best weapon however has to be his unbelievable defense.  He uses a shoulder roll to block his opponents punches and his reaction time is among the best of the best, something that allows him to easily slip punches with subtle head movement.  Maybe the most astounding thing about Rigondeaux is that he has been able to rise up the top ten pound for pound rankings after only twelve fights.

Rigondeaux is perfect in those twelve fights, compiling a record of 12-0 with 8 knockouts.  He has faced solid competition but without a doubt his biggest fight came against Donaire.  In that fight Rigondeaux made fellow pound for pound star Donaire look completely lost.  Rigondeaux used his jab to perfection and although he did get dropped in the 10th round it wasn't anything more than a flash knockdown and he was never in any real danger.  What was supposed to be a very close fight that saw Donaire as the favorite ended with Rigondeaux cruising to an easy victory and now a matchup against Agbeko.  

Agbeko has already fought some of the best

Agbeko is an action star compared to the technically sound Rigondeaux.  He is a pressure fighter who throws punches looking to end fights early and he often does.  Agbeko has fast hands but they would be even faster if he was able to shorten up some of his punches.  One thing Agbeko needs to do in this fight is throw more combinations instead of relying on one big punch to end the fight.  Against such a slick boxer Agbeko probably won't be able to land one of his big looping punches but if he can get inside and throw combinations he could bother Rigondeaux.  

One thing that could help Agbeko is the fact that he has already faced some of the top fighters in his division with two fights against Yonnhy Perez and Abner Mares and one fight against Vic Darchinyan.  He fared pretty well in those fights going 1-1 against Perez, and 1-0 against Darchinyan.  He did lose both of his fights against Mares but the first was very close and he lost by a majority decision.  Agbeko's career record is 29-4 with 22 knockouts and while he is a big puncher who hasn't scored a knockout since stepping in the ring with the top fighters mentioned above.  While one big punch can drop Rigondeaux, Agbeko may not have the quickness to land it.

How good this fights ends up being really depends on Agbeko.  It is no secret that Rigondeaux is going to do what he always does, slip punches with his unreal defense and land crisp counter punches that allow him to pick his opponent apart.  Agbeko needs to take this fight on the inside and land punches but also clinch a lot.  If he can make this fight ugly and not allow Rigondeaux to use his quick footwork to get away from punishment.  If Agbeko can get inside and land a few punches and than tie Rigondeaux up before he can land anything in return he has a chance to pull off the upset.  However this fight plays out fans should get out their paper and pens and take notes on Rigondeaux because every time he steps into the ring it's a masterclass in boxing.

PREDICTION: Joseph Agbeko will come to win not just survive and may have a moment or two but it won't be enough to beat Guillermo Rigondeaux.  Rigondeaux will come away with a unanimous decision victory and will look masterful doing it.     

James Kirkland vs. Glen Tapia

The fight that could very easily steal the show on a night loaded with outstanding fights is a 10 round affair in the junior middleweight divison.  That fight will feature James Kirkland, a big puncher with a ton of talent who also happens to have a questionable work ethich and chin, and Glen Tapia, who is aggressive and fun to watch but has never really been tested.  The reason it could steal the night is because both fighters are all action brawlers who will surely bring fans to their feet.

Kirkland didn't look great his last time out

The fighter who has been tested is James Kirkland and he usually stand up to it.  However there are times when Kirkland comes in looking out of shape and slow like he wasn't training seriously.  That was never more apparent than in Kirkland's shocking first round TKO loss to Nobuhiro Ishida who dropped Kirkland three times.  Kirkland was also down on the cards in his last fight in March of 2012 to Carlos Molina before a horrible disqualification allowed him to win because Molina's corner entered the ring early at the end of round 10.  Still his record is 31-1 with 27 knockouts and when he trains properly under the guidance of trainer Ann Wolfe he is a scarey guy to fight.

The reason he is so scarey is because of his style and punching power.  The best way to describe his style is "athletic-plodding."  He doesn't have fast feet and lumbers around the ring but he is always applying the pressure and muscling his opponent up.  His hands aren't all that fast either but they are powerful.  He doesn't throw a lot of three or four punch combinations, instead relying on heavy one-two's and single punches but when he connects it's dangerous.  And he carries equal amounts of danger in each hand.  That might all be to much for the untested Tapia to handle.

Can the "Jersey Boy" pass his first real test?

It may to much for Tapia to handle but if he shows early on that he can handle it than it may be Kirkland who is big trouble.  Tapia is built, and fights like a more athletic, quicker, orthodox version of Kirkland.  He moves around the ring much smoother and his head movement and hands are both faster than those of Kirkland.  Tapia is also six years younger than Kirkland and hasn't been in as many tough fights all factors that could play a role in this fight.  The other thing that could play a role is Tapia's constant and thunderous banging to the body.  Some guys just go to the body well, Micky Ward to name one, and Tapia is one of those guys.  The big question is what will happen when Tapia faces a real legit contender.

That question will be answered Saturday night.  So far Tapia has been perfect going 20-0 with 12 knockouts and while his knockout number isn't exactly in Gennady Golovkin's territory don't let iy fool you he can seriously bang.  Whether or not he can bang against a banger who has done it at a much higher level remains to be seen.  If Tapia has it in him to take Kirkland's punches and keep coming this should be a helluva fight.

This fight could also hinge on which Kirkland steps into the ring.  If it is a motivated, in shape Kirkland than Tapia might have more than he could handle, but if it is a slower version of Kirkland with some water in the basement it could be Tapia who runs the show.  Tapia always comes ready to fight in elite physical condition and this fight should be no different so if the fight goes late he should be able to outwork Kirkland.

PREDICTION: James Kirkland is a legit puncher and when he takes the sport seriously is a real contender but he won't win this fight.  Tapia's hand speed and body punching against a guy who may come in a little heavy will be the difference in this fight and he will win 10th round stoppage.

Matthew Macklin vs. Lamar Russ

The fight that will start off the night may not have even happened if it wasn't for the ridiculous punching power of Gennady Golovkin.  Golovkin has become so dangerous in the sport that many top fighters won't get in the ring with him and the ones who actually agree to need some serious incentives.  In the case of Matthew Macklin that incentive was a guaranteed fight on HBO win, lose, or draw after his fight with Golovkin.  So Macklin will take on Lamar Russ in a 10 round fight in the middleweight division.  

Macklin couldn't survive this GGG body shot

The last time Macklin fought was against Golovkin and it didn't end well for him.  Macklin only lasted three rounds before Golovkin was able to knock him out with a rib breaking body shot.  For Macklin to even enter the ring against Golovkin took some brass balls, a trait he has shown in the past when he challenged other top fighters such as Felix Sturm and Sergio Martinez.  Macklin had some success against both of those fighters before eventually losing.  He best described as an "all or nothing" type fighter, he either knocks his opponent out or gets knocked out himself.  Macklin holds a record of 29-5 with 20 knockouts and he has been stopped 3 times himself.  The reason he usually gets stopped, besides the fact that he takes on top fighters, is his aggressive style.

Macklin likes to apply the pressure and trade punches which against lower quality opposition works very well for him.  However when he steps up against a top fighter that style usually keeps him in the fight only for so long before he is on the canvas.  Macklin is a good body puncher but he needs to tighten up his defense when he goes on the attack if he wants to keep getting opportunities to fight on HBO.  Macklin's opponent on Saturday night will be making his HBO debut and a win could mean much bigger things for him.

This will be a huge opportunity for Russ

That opponent is Russ and many fans, casual and die hard alike probably have never even heard of him.  Not only will this be Russ' first fight on HBO but this will also be his first 10 round fight.  His team has brought him along slowly and intelligently and they either think there fighter has a great chance of beating Macklin or they're thinking that a chance to fight on HBO is to good to pass up.  Russ is a perfect fighter so far with a record of 14-0 but he only has 7 knockouts so he isn't a tremendous puncher.

Like Macklin, Russ is an aggressive fighter who goes to the body well.  The question is whether or not Russ will be outclassed by Macklin or if he can hang tough and pull off the upset.  Two things going in Russ' favor are his height, and his age.  At 6'2'' Russ is four inches taller than Macklin and at 26 years old he is five years younger.  If the fight gets into the late rounds that difference in years could play a role in the outcome.

If Russ actually thinks he can win the fight and doesn't just come to survive he may have the talent to pull off the upset.  But Macklin is a very tough veteran who isn't going to give in easily.  Motivation will also be a key factor in this fight.  Russ will be the more motivated fighter because this is the biggest opportunity of his young career while Macklin may not get up as much for this fight against a no name opponent following such a high profile fight against Golovkin.

PREDICTION: Lamar Russ is going to give a good showing of himself and should gain more fans and attention but he isn't yet ready for the veteran Matthew Macklin.  Macklin will win this fight by the way of unanimous decision.