ARLINGTON, Texas -- In an era where fighters seems more concerned with keeping their perfect records intact, and not taking unnecessary chances, it is a breath of much needed fresh air when a fighter really challenges themselves. Mikey Garcia will be doing just that when he moves up two divisions to take on IBF welterweight champion Errol Spence Jr. on March 16. The fight will take place at the home of the Dallas Cowboys, AT&T Stadium, and with the stadium's 80,000 seat capacity there will be plenty of room for Spence's hometown fans. For those not wanting to make the trip to Texas, the fight will air live on Fox pay-per-view.
Spence (24-0, 21 KOs) is a big welterweight who could easily move up in weight as his career progresses. He has a measuring stick jab that helps set up his power punches and he is certainly a thudding puncher. His right hook and left hand are both dangerous punches and he is a killer when it comes to body work. Usually Spence's knockouts don't come from a single punch but rather an accumulation of punishment to the body. While Spence will have a notable size advantage of over 3-inches in height and 4-inches in reach against Garcia, he will be at a disadvantage when it comes to hand speed. Also, because he likes to come forward and work the body, Spence is usually there to be hit. He has shown a good chin though and has never been dropped as a pro.
This will be Spence's third defense of his IBF welterweight title. He picked up that belt after traveling across the pond to challenge then champion Kell Brook. While Brook found early success in that fight eventually the power of body work of Spence proved to be too much. Along with that victory Spence also has wins over Lamont Peterson and Chris Algieri. The really big fights start with Garcia though and a win would set Spence up for other top tier opponents in the welterweight division, a division with names like Shawn Porter, Keith Thurman, Terence Crawford, and Manny Pacquiao.
When you take away size and power, the advantage in skills has to go to Garcia (39-0, 30 KOs). He has faster hands than Spence, is the sharper puncher, and is better defensively even though he has been dropped and his chin isn't as good. The defense is better mostly because his footwork is better. Garcia is also a fighter with a high ring IQ. He usually starts slowly as he spends the first few rounds figuring out his opponent before picking them apart. While Garcia definitely hits hard, especially at the lower weights, his knockouts and knockdowns are more about timing than raw power. His jab is excellent as is his left hook and there really isn't a punch that Garcia can't find success with. It helps that he always seems to be a step ahead of his opponent.
Garcia won his first world title as a featherweight against Orlando Salido. He was already struggling to make the 126 limit when he won that title though and had to relinquish it in his very next fight when he failed to make weight. He then won a junior lightweight title against Roman 'Rocky' Martinez and defended it once. Next up for Garcia was a lightweight title fight against Dejan Zlaticanin and another win. He also picked up a few straps as a junior welterweight with wins over Adrien Broner and Sergey Lipinets before moving back down to the lightweight division for a unification bout against Robert Easter Jr. Now Garcia will jump from 135 to 147 as he looks to pull off the upset and leave Texas with Spence's IBF strap.
When it comes to speed, defense, ring IQ, and experience the advantage goes to Garcia. However, in the power and size departments it is abundantly clear that Spence has the advantages. The issue for Garcia in this fight is that there won't be any room for mistakes. If he lets Spence in the pocket and gets pounded to the body it could be a wrap. Look for Garcia to really stay busy with his jab as he looks to stay on the outside and counter the bigger Spence. As for Spence, he should look to impose his size and strength advantage by plowing forward consistently. If Spence can make this an inside fight he could put a serious hurting on Garcia. This is a fight that feels like Garcia will have to be perfect for 12 rounds to win, while Spence will just need to land that one perfect punch to end things.
PREDICTION: The smart pick here is Errol Spence Jr. His size and strength advantage will allow him to give away a few rounds as long as he can land his power punches and body shots. Mikey Garcia's experience, ring IQ, and skills can't be overlooked though. Garcia will really have to stick and move and stay moving for all 12 rounds if he wants to get the win. His ring IQ and movement will be the difference though and Garcia will pull off the upset and win this fight by the way of majority decision.
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| Spence, moments after his knockout of Carlos Ocampo |
This will be Spence's third defense of his IBF welterweight title. He picked up that belt after traveling across the pond to challenge then champion Kell Brook. While Brook found early success in that fight eventually the power of body work of Spence proved to be too much. Along with that victory Spence also has wins over Lamont Peterson and Chris Algieri. The really big fights start with Garcia though and a win would set Spence up for other top tier opponents in the welterweight division, a division with names like Shawn Porter, Keith Thurman, Terence Crawford, and Manny Pacquiao.
When you take away size and power, the advantage in skills has to go to Garcia (39-0, 30 KOs). He has faster hands than Spence, is the sharper puncher, and is better defensively even though he has been dropped and his chin isn't as good. The defense is better mostly because his footwork is better. Garcia is also a fighter with a high ring IQ. He usually starts slowly as he spends the first few rounds figuring out his opponent before picking them apart. While Garcia definitely hits hard, especially at the lower weights, his knockouts and knockdowns are more about timing than raw power. His jab is excellent as is his left hook and there really isn't a punch that Garcia can't find success with. It helps that he always seems to be a step ahead of his opponent.
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| Garcia, catching Robert Easter Jr. with a sharp right hand |
When it comes to speed, defense, ring IQ, and experience the advantage goes to Garcia. However, in the power and size departments it is abundantly clear that Spence has the advantages. The issue for Garcia in this fight is that there won't be any room for mistakes. If he lets Spence in the pocket and gets pounded to the body it could be a wrap. Look for Garcia to really stay busy with his jab as he looks to stay on the outside and counter the bigger Spence. As for Spence, he should look to impose his size and strength advantage by plowing forward consistently. If Spence can make this an inside fight he could put a serious hurting on Garcia. This is a fight that feels like Garcia will have to be perfect for 12 rounds to win, while Spence will just need to land that one perfect punch to end things.
PREDICTION: The smart pick here is Errol Spence Jr. His size and strength advantage will allow him to give away a few rounds as long as he can land his power punches and body shots. Mikey Garcia's experience, ring IQ, and skills can't be overlooked though. Garcia will really have to stick and move and stay moving for all 12 rounds if he wants to get the win. His ring IQ and movement will be the difference though and Garcia will pull off the upset and win this fight by the way of majority decision.
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