PBC on CBS Fight Preview

Keith Thurman vs. Danny Garcia

Boxing on free TV is always a good thing for the sport.  When it lands in prime time on a major network like CBS it is even better and that is exactly what will happen this Saturday.  In the main event of a PBC card, WBA champion Keith Thurman will take on WBC champion Danny Garcia in a 12-round welterweight unification fight.  Any boxing fan will tell you that there are too many belts in each division so a unification fight is always a welcomed event.  What makes this fight even more exciting is the fact that Thurman and Garcia are both in their primes and neither one has ever lost a professional fight, not to mention there is definitely no love lost between the two.  

Thurman catches Porter clean

Thurman is an orthodox fighter with very good power, as his nickname "One Time" would indicate.  For such a prolific power puncher though he has actually shown good patience in the ring and he isn't just a brawler.  Thurman likes to work behind a very stiff jab and he will work that punch both upstairs and to the body.  He also has a strong left hook that can do damage but his best punch is his right hand because he can do so many things with it.  Thurman will throw a straight right hand from the outside that can end a fight and on the inside he will shorten it up and do just as much damage.  However, he also throws a sneaky uppercut with the right hand that many opponents never see coming.  Defensively Thurman can still make some tweaks because at times he will open up too much when he throws his power punches and he leaves himself open for return fire.  He hasn't paid the price for that yet but Garcia has a left hook that can end a fight in a split second so Thurman needs to stay focused for every second of all 12 rounds. 

Thurman really started to make a name for himself back in 2012 and 2013 when, as a rising contender, he knocked out tough opponents like Diego Chaves and Jesus Soto Karass.  In 2014 though he faced two opponents who didn't pose much of a threat to him and fans started to grumble.  That grumbling stopped though when Thurman took on Robert Guerrero, Luis Collazo, and Shawn Porter, the last of which ended up being a 2016 Fight of the Year candidate.  As a professional Thurman has a perfect record of 27-0 with a strong 22 knockouts and really his only blemish in recent years was when he was hurt to the body against Collazo.  What made that impressive though was that he came back to stop Collazo in the very next round.  Now Thurman stands on the precipice of stardom but he needs to beat his most dangerous opponent in order to get there.

Garcia has an easy time with Vargas

Garcia is also an orthodox fighter and while he may not carry as much power as Thurman he does have one great equalizer, his left hook.  That left hook from Garcia has ended numerous fights early and he has a pretty impressive highlight reel from that punch alone.  Garcia isn't just a one trick pony though, he also has a strong jab and a solid right hand.  The two biggest weaknesses Garcia has shown are his penchant to fight down to the level of his competition and the fact that he isn't a very busy puncher.  There have been fights where Garcia seems to disappear for half of the fight and while he has always done enough to get the win, if he doesn't stay busy enough against Thurman he could suffer his first loss.

Throughout his career Garcia has taken a lot of heat for his choice of opponents.  Some of that criticism is certainly warranted.  After beating Lucas Matthysse in a very close fight to become the man at 140 pounds Garcia took on Mauricio Herrera, who is a quality fighter but not a marquee name.  Many felt that Garcia not only lost that fight to Herrera but actually got beat up and he followed that bout up by taking on a fighter in Rod Salka who was ranked outside the top 50 a full division below junior welterweight.  However, Garcia made his name by beating the likes of Eric Morales, Amir Khan, and Zab Judah so he has been in the ring with some talented foes.  Since moving to welterweight, Garcia has faced faded veteran opponents who didn't pose much of a challenge and he will now put his 33-0 record, including 19 knockouts, on the line against his most dangerous opponent since moving to welterweight.

There will be a lot on the line on Saturday night.  Not only will someone lose their perfect record but the winner of this fight could lay claim to being the best fighter at 147 pounds not named Manny Pacquiao.  Thurman should be the busier fighter in this bout as he looks to pile up damage with both hands.  Meanwhile, Garcia will probably look to pick his spots to go to the body or unleash his devastating left hook upstairs.  The favorite has to be Thurman though and a look at a recent common opponent points to that.  Both Thurman and Garcia recently faced Guerrero with Garcia facing him about a year after Thurman did.  While Thurman dropped and easily beat Guerrero, his fight against Garcia was much closer although Garcia was the clean victor.  Thurman should get out to the early lead against Garcia but if he gets overconfident be sure that Garcia will make him pay.

PREDICTION: This is going to be a very close fight where neither fighter ever really pulls away from the other.  While Thurman will probably be busier, Garcia will be able to put in a lot of good body work that could slow Thurman down in spots.  When all is said and done the punch output of Thurman along with his superior power will be enough to earn him the unanimous decision victory.

Erickson Lubin vs. Jorge Cota

Saturday's co-feature may not end up being a highly competitive fight like the main event promises to be.  It should be a great showcase for top prospect Erickson Lubin though.  Lubin will take on Jorge Cota in a fight scheduled to go 12 rounds from the junior middleweight division.  The fight has some extra importance to it being that it will act as a WBC junior middleweight title eliminator which would give either winner their first shot at a major title.

Lubin shows off his power

Lubin is a lanky southpaw with good pop on his punches.  Along with his power the 21-year-old also has fast hands and he has a good idea of what he wants to do in the ring.  Offensively Lubin seems to have all the tools he needs, his jab is a stiff one and he can put in quality work with his right hook or strong straight left hand.  Speed and power in both hands make Lubin a dangerous offensive fighter but at times he can get a little too confident and forget about protecting his chin.  

Like most young fighters Lubin has stayed very busy but hasn't faced any notable opponents.  However, in 2016 Lubin did face a string of quality opponents and went 4-0 with two knockouts and none of the fights were even close.  For his career he has put together a record of 17-0 with a solid 12 knockouts and because he is so young he will seemingly keep getting better and better as he continues to gain more experience.  A win on Saturday could spark a very big 2017 for Lubin who hopes to win a title and also become a bigger name in the sport.

Cota eats a left hook from Rubio

Cota is an orthodox fighter which means a clash of heads could come into play as it often does when a southpaw takes on an orthodox opponent.  Cota likes to leave his lead hand low and he has shown an incredibly lazy jab that he will flash out and then leave dangling.  At times Cota will also switch to the southpaw stance but his punches from either stance tend to come in very wide.  While Cota has shown power in his career none of his punches look very good.  His left hook and right hand can do damage but neither are skilled punches and he should have his hands full against Lubin, especially considering he tends to eat a lot of heavy leather upstairs.

The resume of Cota is filled with fighters not worth mentioning.  He has faced off against nine opponents who entered the fight with zero wins on their resume and 11 opponents with losing records.  Really the only two notable opponents he has faced are Luis Ramon "Yori Boy" Campas who is probably a few decades past his prime, and Marco Antonio Rubio who knocked him out in the seventh round.  His record is 25-1 with a very strong 22 knockouts but sometimes records can be deceiving and this is one of those times.  

There is a reason Cota is in this fight and it is to make Lubin look good.  Lubin is a star on the rise and unless he gets caught with a sloppy punch he doesn't see coming he should be able to use his superior skills to easily handle Cota.  Like he has in all his fights, Cota will have a puncher's chance but because Lubin is so much quicker that chance is probably a slim one.

PREDICTION: Jorge Cota is no match for Erickson Lubin.  Cota has a sloppy skill set that will look even worse against a skilled pugilist like Lubin and the young prospect is going to win this fight in spectacular fashion when he knocks Cota out in the sixth round.