HBO PPV Fight Preview (Main Event)

Miguel Cotto vs. Saul "Canelo" Alvarez

Saturday's fight between Miguel Cotto and Saul "Canelo" Alvarez could very well end up being the Fight of the Year.  The fight is scheduled to go 12 rounds in the middleweight division but it will actually be at a catchweight of 155 pounds.  Originally Cotto was supposed to be defending his WBC World middleweight title, the belt who took from Sergio Martinez which also made him the lineal middleweight champion of the world.  However, a few days ago Cotto was stripped of that title after refusing to pay the WBC a $300,000 sanctioning fee.  In this fight though the belt doesn't matter much, a belt now only Alvarez can win.  This fight is a battle between Puerto Rico and Mexico and based on each fighter's history it should be a fantastic action fight.

Cotto has always been a deadly body puncher

Cotto's style has been tweaked by various trainers over the years but never greatly changed.  The Puerto Rican, who is the islands only four-division champion has always been known for one thing, his left hook.  That left hook can end a fight if he lands it upstairs but it is absolutely devastating when he lands it to the body.  Cotto isn't just a one-trick pony though, he also has a good jab and a solid straight right hand.  On the inside Cotto will throw that right hand over the top but opponents are usually worried about his left hook over everything else.  Cotto's jab is what allows him to get inside and he fights aggressively behind it and sticks it to the body nicely.  The defensive side of things is where Cotto's flaws are more noticeable.  It isn't that he's a bad defensive fighter, he actually shows good footwork, but he does have a tendency to get caught upstairs and he is prone to cutting and swelling.  Another problem for Cotto is his stamina and he has faded in the final rounds of a few big fights.  However, under new trainer Freddie Roach none of Cotto's fights have gone passed 10 rounds.

When it comes to resumes Cotto's is top notch and his wins over many high level fighters is why he will go straight to the International Boxing Hall of Fame when he decides to hang the gloves up.  Cotto has wins over the likes of Zab Judah, Shane Mosley, Antonio Margarito, and Sergio Martinez and his losses have come against fellow top fighters in Margarito, Manny Pacquiao, Floyd Mayweather, and Austin Trout.  In fact in 2012 when Cotto lost consecutive fights to Mayweather and Trout it looked like his career might be done.  The came Roach who has rejuvenated Cotto's career.  In a way it is like an athlete who switches teams and has a resurgence in his new setting.  Although it isn't exactly clear just how good Cotto is under Roach because all of their  four fights together come with a caveat.  Delvin Rodriguez was a B-level fighter, Martinez only had one good leg, and Daniel Geale was very drained.  This fight against Alvarez will really let the world know just how good Cotto is under Roach.  During his phenomenal career Cotto has put together a record of 40-4 with an outstanding 33 knockouts and a win over Alvarez would only help in cementing his legacy as one of the best of his era.

Alvarez is looking to capture the lineal title     

Alvarez, who hails from Mexico but looks Irish is a boxer-puncher.  The knocks against him are that his hands aren't exceptionally fast and his footwork makes him look like someone soaked his shoes in cement.  However, he has accomplished a lot for only being 24 years old and not having a top level trainer.  Alvarez is an orthodox fighter with good power in both hands.  While Alvarez is aggressive he never gets out of control and his has a nice stiff jab that sets up everything else.  One thing Alvarez does well is counter punch and his right hand is dangerous whether he throws it straight or over the top.  The best punch for the young Mexican is his left hook and he does a good job of breaking opponents down by throwing it to the body.  Defensively Alvarez isn't great because of his slow feet but he has shown a great chin.  His biggest problem may be conditioning, he has had problems making the junior middleweight limit of 154 pounds in the past and he has been known to take rounds off in the middle of fights, something he can't afford to do against Cotto.

Outside of bouts against Mayweather and Erislandy Lara, Saturday will mark the biggest fight of Alvarez's career.  At such a young age he has already racked up a record of 45-1-1 and he has a strong 32 knockouts.  Since his 2013 loss to Mayweather, Alvarez has gone 3-0 with 2 knockouts but it can be argued that he lost his fight with Lara.  Also you have to consider that he fought a faded Alfredo Angulo and James Kirkland was without Ann Wolfe and the last time Kirkland fought without Wolfe in his corner he was knocked out by the light hitting Nobuhiro Ishida in the very 1st round.  Still, Alvarez does have some other name wins on his resume, names like Mosley and Trout and you can bet he would love to add Cotto to that list.

If this fight was a dud it would be a shocker.  Both Cotto and Alvarez are aggressive fighters who do some of their best work on the inside and since it will be a battle between Mexico and Puerto Rico things should be even more intense.  This fight could come down to who takes advantage of the his opponents stamina issues.  Alvarez usually fades in the middle rounds and if Cotto pounces on him he could stop him.  However, if this fight makes it to the championship rounds where Cotto has been known to fade Alvarez may be the one doing the finishing.  Cotto's history of swelling and bleeding could also play a big role as could both corners.  In Cotto's corner is Roach, one of the best trainers of all-time and he has certainly put together a good strategy with a few backup plans.  Meanwhile in Alvarez's corner is the father and son team of Chepo and Eddy Reynoso and as fans saw in the Mayweather fight, they don't always have a good game plan.  Above all else what can be expected is an exciting fight that takes place in a phone booth and never lets up until the final bell or until one man can't make it to his feet.

PREDICTION: Saul "Canelo" Alvarez is entering his physical prime while Miguel Cotto has long passed his.  However, even though Cotto is naturally smaller he does carry a bit more power and his footwork is much better than his Mexican opponents.  Also, it can't be overlooked that Cotto has Freddie Roach in his corner and has much more experience in high level fights than Alvarez does.  This will be an extremely close fight but the better movement of Cotto will get him the win by the way of split decision.