HBO Fight Preview

Juan Manuel Marquez vs. Mike Alvarado

It isn't often that two fighters  coming off losses get to headline an HBO card but that is exactly what will happen on Saturday night.  Juan Manuel Marquez who is coming off a close loss to Timothy Bradley will face off against Mike Alvarado who is coming off a loss of his own at the powerful hands of Ruslan Provodnikov.  The fight is scheduled to go 12 rounds and is a WBO title eliminator with the winner most likely getting a fight with Manny Pacquiao.  Neither Marquez or Alvarado looked stellar in their last fight but both always bring good action and are hungry for a win which should make for a good fight.

Marquez looked a half step slow against Bradley

At this point in his storied career Marquez won't be learning any new tricks.  At 40 years old his career seems to be nearing an end but he is still a top pound for pound fighter who is no pushover.  Marquez is and always will be a counter puncher.  While he isn't going to be the busiest fighter in the world his incredibly accurate punches allow him to win rounds and fights.  Marquez doesn't have much of a jab and likes to counter with his right hand and follow it up with quick combinations.  Marquez can be fascinating to watch as he paints his opponents face with perfectly placed counter punches.  Defensively Marquez does get touched up but has never been knocked out.  While he has been dropped on numerous occasions he always gets up off the deck and usually comes back fighting even better.  Alvarado has some real power so it will be interesting to see how a 40 year old Marquez will stand up to it.

There are not many fighters in the sport of boxing with a more impressive list of opponents than Marquez has put together.  He has never had a problem with stepping in the ring against the very best and he has names like Pacquiao, Bradley, Floyd Mayweather, Chris John, Orlando Salido, Marco Antonio Barrera, Joel Casamayor, Juan Diaz, and Michael Katsidis on his resume.  When looking at his list of opponents and keeping in mind many of his fights with Pacquiao could have gone either way his record of 55-7-1 with 40 knockouts becomes even more impressive.  In 2012 Marquez knocked Pacquiao out cold but instead of retiring he chose to press on and chase a title in yet another division.  While he did look half a step slow against Bradley he could very well impress against the slightly slower Alvarado.

Alvarado was broken by the Siberian Rocky

While Marquez's past few fights have been in the welterweight division Alvarado will be moving up from junior welterweight.  Alvarado is very similar to the late great ultimate blood and guts warrior Arturo Gatti in that he is a skilled boxer but usually finds himself in a phone booth fight.  Alvarado has a good jab along with a solid left hook.  However it is the right hand of Alvarado that is his best weapon.  Alvarado is at his best when he is sticking his jab and moving laterally around the ring and setting up his combinations.  Yet for long stretches of fights Alvarado will be sucked into a war and he will stand toe to toe trading heavy leather.  While Alvarado can fight pretty well on the inside he takes way to much punishment and is better off sticking and moving.

For a long time Alvarado was a relatively unknown but also undefeated fighter.  That was until 2012 when Alvarado lost a fight to Brandon Rios but gained the attention of the boxing world.  That fight was an all-time classic and moved Alvarado to the upper echelon of the sport.  Alvarado followed that fight up by beating Rios in their rematch in another classic slugfest that was supposed to set Alvarado up for a mega fight.  However that fight never materialized so Alvarado was forced to fight Provodnikov, a brutal fighter who no one wants to face.  Alvarado was dropped twice in that fight and eventually lost the fight when he refused to answer the bell.  Alvarado has an impressive career record of 34-2 with a solid 23 knockouts but he didn't look sharp against Provodnikov and there is a slight chance he could be a shot fighter.

There is really no telling how this fight will play out.  Fans know how Marquez will fight but the question is which Alvarado will step into the ring.  Will it be the boxer who sticks and moves or will it be the puncher who plants his feet and throws the power?  Another interesting aspect of this fight is that both fighters could be shot.  Marquez looked slower against Bradley but still is a good fighter however at 40 years old there is always the chance father time catches up to him and really slows him down.  Alvarado also looked slower in his last fight and he has been in some absolutely brutal wars that have clearly taken their toll on him.  A loss could send either fighter into retirement while a win would earn them a nice payday against Pacquiao.  Both fighters should be extremely hungry not only to get the fight with Pacquiao but also show people they still have something left.  The reason this fight has a chance to be so good is because both fighters may have slowed down just enough to make this a toss up fight.

PREDICTION: You don't fight Ruslan Provodnikov without paying the price and Mike Alvarado seems to have paid that price.  While Alvarado will bring the action he won't be as sharp as he has been in the past and Juan Manuel Marquez will take advantage of that with his elite counter punching.  Because Alvarado is somewhat diminished Marquez will land a lot of clean punches and win this fight by the way of unanimous decision and there is even a chance he may stop him late. 

Viktor Postol vs. Selcuk Aydin

The co-feature for Saturday's main event will feature two fighters casual fans have probably never heard of and who big time boxing fans may only be slightly aware of.  The fight will be between Viktor Postol and Selcuk Aydin who have a combined record of 51-2 and some nice wins on their resumes.  This will be a big fight for both men because a good performance would raise their profiles in the sport.  The fight is scheduled to go 12 rounds and is a WBC junior welterweight title eliminator.

Postol has been perfect and hopes to stay that way

Postol is a professional boxer who fights a lot like an amateur one.  That isn't because he is not a good fighter, it is because of his style.  Postol is an orthodox boxer who works behind a jab and keeps his left hand very busy.  With the left hand Postol doesn't look to do damage but just score points with a jab and an awkward left hook that he just flicks at opponents.  Along with that Postol has a pretty nice right hand that is his strongest punch.  Postol is almost like a baseball pitcher in the way he throws his punches.  Pitchers will throw fastballs and also mix in some changeups to get the batter off balance.  Postol does the same thing, he will flick out the jab, left hook, and even the right hand just to tap opponents then bring the same punch stronger and faster to do some damage.  Along with his awkward style of offense he is also a hard fighter to hit because he fights behind such a high guard.  Something everyone he has faced has realized which has left him with a perfect record.

Postol's career has been perfect so far and he has a professional record of 25-0 but doesn't have much power and has only scored 10 knockouts.  Most of Postol's fights have been in his native Ukraine and also Russia and he has only fought in the U.S. one time but that one fight was very successful as he won by the way of 1st round knockout.  While most of his opponents are unknown to U.S. fans he does have a win over DeMarcus Corley and more impressively a unanimous decision win over the always difficult Henry Lundy.  A win on Saturday night could really help his career in the U.S. but a loss might mean this is his last major fight on U.S. soil.

Aydin has been in some high profile fights

Aydin is similar to Postol in that he also uses a high guard, but that is where the similarities end.  Aydin is more powerful of the two and is also much more aggressive.  Some would say the most important punch in boxing is the jab but you wouldn't know that by watching Aydin who doesn't throw if very often.  Instead Aydin throws an awkward left hook upstairs that is sort of a jab-hook.  His best punch is his right hand and he throws it with bad intentions.  While Postol will be looking to win rounds with accurate punching that doesn't have much power behind it Aydin will be trying to land power and his aggressive style.

Aydin has fought in the U.S. more than Postol has but he hasn't had the same success.  Aydin's career record is very impressive and stands at 26-2 with a strong 19 knockouts but his only two career losses came in the U.S..  However he lost those fights to very tough fighters who give everyone problems, Robert Guerrero and Jesus Soto Karass.  If you look at the one pugilist that Aydin and Postol have both fought it is Corley and while Postol beat him by the way of unanimous decision Aydin stopped him in the 4th round.  Which just speaks to their contrasting styles Aydin the pressure puncher and Postol the light hitting boxer.

This should be a closely contested fight especially since both fighters will want to make their mark on U.S. fans.  Postol is the boxer but he isn't exactly slick and doesn't move around the ring extremely well.  If both fighters decide to stand and trade it should be Aydin who lands the harder punches even if he landing fewer of them.  If this fight goes to the cards it could go either way and really depends on what style the judges prefer, the fighter landing the higher number of punches in Postol or the fighter landing the more meaningful shots which will be Aydin.  The names may not be well known but the fight should be a good one.

PREDICTION: If Viktor Postol was a bit slicker he would probably beat the heavier handed Selcuk Aydin.  However he doesn't use his feet as well as he should which means Aydin shouldn't have a hard time finding him.  Aydin is the stronger fighter and that should allow him to slowly breakdown Postol on his way to an 11th round stoppage.