HBO Fight Preview (January 25th)

Mikey Garcia vs. Juan Carlos Burgos

Saturday on HBO will be a very important night for boxing.  One reason for that is because Mikey Garcia will be headlining the main event.  Garcia is on track to become HBO's next superstar  and whispers of a fight with Manny Pacquiao have already started to rumble and if Garcia gets past Juan Carlos Burgos those whispers will only intensify.  Garcia and Burgos will square off in a junior lightweight bout, scheduled to go 12 rounds, with Garcia's WBO title on the line.

Garcia survived a flash knockdown to win

The reason Garcia looks like a soon to be superstar is because of his unreal ring intelligence.  Typically Garcia starts off his fights slowly, carefully dissecting his opponents weaknesses and their plan of attack before he goes in for the kill.  Garcia also has very sharpened skills, in part because he works so well with his trainer and brother Robert Garcia.  There isn't anything Garcia doesn't do at an elite level.  His only weakness, if you can call it that, is his propensity to start slow.  As he takes on tougher fighters he may not be able to always knock them out and won't be able to simply relinquish the early rounds to them.  It might take Garcia losing a close fight to change his style and start off his fights quicker but as of now "if it ain't broke, don't fix it."

Garcia has been a perfect fighter to this point in his career with a record of 33-0 with 28 of those wins coming by knockout.  2013 was really his breakout year, he went 3-0 and those wins came against Orlando Salido, Juan Manuel Lopez, and Roman "Rocky" Martinez.  Garcia didn't just beat those elite fighters he utterly dominated them.  If Garcia is able to beat Burgos on Saturday night a fight with Yuriorkis Gamboa or Manny Pacquiao could be next.  Garcia has already said that he would fight Pacquiao at 135 or 140 pounds and it seems like a fight that Bob Arum, who promotes both fighters, is very interested in making.  In Garcia's last fight he suffered a flash knockdown in the 2nd round but wasn't hurt and was able to dispatch of Martinez with a brutal body shot in the 8th round.  Burgos has also recently fought Martinez but with a much different outcome.

Burgos isn't nearly as polished as Garcia but lets be honest not many fighters are.  Burgos also isn't as calculating as Garcia.  While Garcia takes the early rounds to figure out his opponent, Burgos uses the early rounds to jump all over them.  Burgos loves to start fast and never slows down.  His best attribute is his relentlessness and his volume of punches.  While he can get a bit to wild from time to time he isn't just a brawler he does have some boxing skills.  He has a good jab and moves around the ring well but he loves to throw, throw, and then throw some more.  Because Garcia is such a slow starter Burgos could give him a lot of problems early on.

Burgos will try to shock the boxing world

Burgos' last few fights haven't helped his career.  He fought twice in 2013 and both fights ended in a draw.  Burgos' first fight of the year came against Martinez and it was a fight he should have won.  Nearly everyone watching the fight aside from two judges thought Burgos won but unfortunately for his career it didn't workout that way.  Later in the year Burgos took on Yakubu Amidu and while that fight wasn't a clear cut as the Martinez bout it was still a fight most people thought Burgos deserved to win.  His career record now stands at 30-1-2 with 20 knockouts but coming off back to back draws he really needs to look impressive against Garcia.  Without a doubt this will be the toughest fight of Burgos' career and a win over Garcia would shock the sport and send Burgos to heights he may not otherwise reach.

Coming into this fight Garcia will be the heavy favorite.  But that doesn't mean Burgos is entering the ring just to survive.  Burgos is a tough fighter and should realize this may be his best chance to become a star.  Burgos will start off the fight quickly as he always does and if he puts enough punches together he may be able to really bother Garcia.  So far Garcia has been able to figure out every opponent after a few rounds but with the volume of punches that Burgos typically throws, Garcia may not be able to lay back and study him early on.  If Burgos can frustrate Garcia early and put some rounds in the bank he may have the ability to keep the fight close and force the judges to decide the winner.  However Garcia is a one punch knockout type fighter and Burgos will need to be careful not to open up to much or Garcia will end his night early.  If Burgos is able to beat Garcia he will become the new darling of boxing but if Garcia can get through Burgos the way he has everyone else then boxing may have found its next superstar. 

PREDICTION: Juan Carlos Burgos will frustrate Mikey Garcia early and will give fans a good show but it won't be enough to beat the next superstar.  Garcia is going to win this fight in typical Garcia fashion, by knockout.  This time around Garcia will get the win via 9th round knockout.

Bryant Jennings vs. Artur Szpilka

While hardcore boxing fans are looking forward to seeing the skills of Mikey Garcia on display, casual ones are probably looking forward to the co-main event much more.  That is because that fight will be a heavyweight battle scheduled to go 10 rounds and it is no secret that the heavyweight division is the most popular weight class in the sport, especially with casual fans.  The two men entering the ring will be Bryant Jennings and Artur Szpilka, two very different fighters, except for their records because neither man has ever tasted defeat.

Jennings may be the best American heavyweight

When the name Bryant Jennings is brought up in boxing circles the name Deontay Wilder isn't far behind it.  That is because both men are considered to be America's best chance to reclaiming the heavyweight title.  Jennings went from unknown fighter to hot prospect in in 2012 when he went 5-0 and appeared numerous times on NBC Sports Net.  However he took a step back in 2013 because he only fought once due to promotional issues.  As of now Jennings is a perfect fighter with a record of 17-0 with 9 knockouts.  And while his knockout percentage may not jump off the page he has a lot more power than people give him credit for.

One thing that makes Jennings so good and also may be why he doesn't have more knockouts is because he doesn't just rely on power to win fights.  Jennings is a boxer first and a puncher second.  He has a telephone pole of a jab that he uses to measure distance and that allows him to get inside and land power punches.  Jennings also moves very well around the ring, especially for a heavyweight and that ability only amplifies his boxing skills.  While Jennings may not possess one punch knockout type power he does have plenty of thunder in his punches to make any fighter respect him.  And against a fighter like Szpilka with a questionable chin he may have enough power to put on a real show.

Szpilka will do his best to make this a phone booth fight because it is his best chance to win.  If Szpilka can get inside he will be able to smother the punches of Jennings and not allow him to use his strong jab to control the fight.  Szpilka is very different from Jennings, he isn't a good boxer and instead relies on his raw power to win fights.  Szpilka is a southpaw which always makes things interesting and he has lead in his left hand.  But Szpilka also has some flaws like the way he lets his right hand drift away from his body, leaving his midsection exposed.  His most glaring weakness however is his chin.  Szpilka has been dropped many times by journeyman fighters and while he has always been able to get back up that isn't a smart way to fight.

Can Szpilka's chin withstand Jennings?

So far Szpilka is undefeated with a record of 16-0 with 12 knockouts but Jennings is definitely his toughest test.  Making matters tougher is the fact that when Szpilka tried to enter the country he was sent back to his native Poland because his visa wasn't in order.  While Szpilka hasn't made any excuses that certainly put a wrench in things.  Szpilka did score a spectacular knockout in 2013 in his second fight against Mike Mollo when he knocked Mollo out in the 5th round and he will look to do the same to Jennings.

Szpilka is looking more and more like a do or die fighter.  It seems like his career will be an exciting one because he seems like he always has the chance to either score a knockout or be knocked out himself.  Jennings on the other hand is much more polished and his future looks brighter than Szpilka's.  However on Saturday night all of the pressure will be on Jennings.  Jennings is the one who has the hopes of American fans on his back and he is the one most fans will be tuning into see while Szpilka only has to worry about the fight.  This will be the toughest bout of both fighters careers so look for them both to leave it all in the ring and give fans something to talk about.

PREDICTION: Bryant Jennings will face a lot of pressure come Saturday night but he will live up to the hype and look sharp.  Artur Szpilka is a good fighter but he isn't as sharp as Jennings and his weak chin will really show in this fight.  I expect the fight to start slow as both men feel the other out but when things open up it will be Jennings who gets the better of the action on his way to a 7th round knockout.