Fight Preview (November 23rd PPV)

Manny Pacquiao vs. Brandon Rios

The PPV fight taking place this Saturday night isn't your typical event.  That is mainly because this fight is taking place in Macau, China a city that is a full thirteen hours ahead of New York City.  This means while the PPV card will be televised at the usual time in the U.S. it will actually be Sunday morning in China when the two fighters enter the ring for the main event.  The two men forced to deal with the unusual start time are Manny Pacquiao and Brandon Rios who face off in a 12 round bout in the welterweight division.  Both fighters are coming off losses and both are looking to prove that loss was a fluke.

Can Pacquiao overcome this historic knockout?

The headliner of this fight is Pacquiao and it is also the reason the fight will be in China.  With Pacquiao's career seemingly headed towards the finish line, his promoter Bob Arum wants to make the most money possible and having him fight in Asia will earn everyone a ton of money.  While Pacquiao's trainer Freddie Roach has said this is one of Pacquiao's best camps of all-time, questions about his mindset have to be asked.  Just how much did getting knocked out cold by Juan Manuel Marquez in his last fight effect him?  How has his role as a congressman in the Philippines, especially after such a devastating typhoon distract him from his training?  And the biggest question of all, how much does thing ring veteran have left?

These muscles could be the x-factor

Most people think however much Pacquiao has left it will be enough to handle the slower Rios.  The reason Pacquiao is such a heavy favorite is because of his electric speed.  Pacquiao is a southpaw fighter who fights with his hands low and throws punches from awkward angles.  He never stands still always moving in and out effectively in quick bursts while landing solid combinations, and his lateral movement is just as good.  One thing many people overlook with Pacquiao is his ability to feint so effectively, setting up his opponent for whichever punch Pacquiao wants to land.  Pacquiao will try to frustrate Rios with his movement and feints and will do his best to not allow Rios to cut off the ring and get him in a phone booth fight.

Every boxing fan, big time and casual alike have long watched Pacquiao and have long been impressed.  However his most recent fights haven't gone according to plan.  Pacquiao is 0-2 in his last two fights and while his loss to Timothy Bradley is viewed by most people as a win for Pacquiao, he didn't exactly impress and gave Bradley a chance to steal rounds.  There is no doubt that Pacquiao will be in the Hall of Fame after he retires and his career record is 54-5-2 with 38 knockouts.  While Pacquiao says he has three good years left in the sport there is a chance that Rios could send him into an early retirement, especially if Pacquiao's long history of cramps in his calf muscles flair up.  Pacquiao has great power in both hands but perhaps his greatest weapon is his movement and if his legs start to cramp he might be forced to be more stationary which would greatly benefit the slower Rios.  

While Rios is definitely the slower fighter he should be used to that being that he usually is when he enters the ring.  Rios is not a fighter who relies on his speed, instead he relies on his power, and tenacity.  Perhaps no other boxer in the sport loves fighting more than Rios does.  When he gets tagged with a big power punch he doesn't go down and he doesn't buckle, he smiles and asks for more.  Rios loves to fight on the inside and if it were up to him, every one of his fights would actually take place in a phone booth.  Certainly Pacquiao will try to avoid a fight like that so Rios will have to work hard to cut off the ring and not let the quicker fighter control the pace.  In Rios' last fight against Mike Alvarado, the latter fighter was able to box and move enough in the late rounds to win a close fight.  Rios can't let that happen again.

Rios would rather fight in a closet than a ring

Pacquiao will probably start off this fight acting cute trying to feint at Rios while jumping in and out in an effort to frustrate the less experienced fighter.  To combat that Rios should go right on the attack trying to bully Pacquiao up against the ropes and pound away at the body.  This will be Rios' first fight in the welterweight division after only fighting twice at junior welterweight and in this camp he has really focused on improving his already good power.  It should be evident early on just how well Pacquiao can handle power punches because Rios will be throwing them early and often.  If Marquez took a lot out of Pacquiao with his amazing knockout then Rios has a chance to do some serious damage early.  However if Pacquiao shows that he still has something left this bout should be a dogfight.  While Pacquiao is best when constantly moving, he isn't opposed to standing flat footed, traded power punches, something that Rios would certainly welcome.

If Pacquiao can start fast and build an early lead he could just spend the later rounds sticking and moving while Rios is forced to follow him around the ring.  However if there are close rounds early on Pacquiao might feel he needs to do more and try to slug with Rios.  That is Rios best chance of winning, if he can keep the fight close in the early to middle rounds he may be able to put a hurting on Pacquiao late and stop him.  If Pacquiao can move effectively all night while landing power punches he should be able to cruise to the victory.  But if Pacquiao's history of leg cramps flares up and he losses some speed Rios will be able to capitalize and could stop Pacquiao late.  Both fighters are always fun to watch and this fight should be more of a dogfight than a track meet.

PREDICTION: The smart money here is on Manny Pacquiao and there is a reason he is the favorite.  However I think the fight will start pretty close early on and if Brandon Rios can survive the middle rounds he may end up frustrating Pacquiao who will then press to much and get rocked by Rios.  I think both fighters will look to score the knockout late and it will be Rios who comes out on top.  Rios will win a great fight with an 11th round stoppage.