Floyd Mayweather vs. Saul "Canelo" Alvarez
It is being hailed as "The One" and will be by far the biggest boxing event of the year, and maybe the biggest fight since Floyd Mayweather took on Oscar De La Hoya in 2007. This time around Mayweather will be battling another fighter with a large Mexican fan base and one who is mentored by De La Hoya, Saul "Canelo" Alvarez in a 12 round bout at a catchweight of 152 pounds. This fight features to unbeaten fighters, one whose career is winding down, and the other whose career is on the rise. It could also be one of Mayweather's toughest fights to date considering Alvarez is the biggest and perhaps strongest opponent he has ever faced. One thing that is for certain, the atmosphere will be absolutely electric.
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| Mayweather got hurt early but never lost focus |
By far the biggest name in the sport of boxing today is Mayweather. He has been the PPV king since 2007 and draws just as many casual fights to his fights as hardcore ones. When Mayweather fights it is not just a major boxing event, it is a major cultural event. So what does the man who can fight anyone in the world do after beating Robert Guerrero only 4 months ago? He decides to take on young Mexican superstar Alvarez in a very dangerous fight. But Mayweather is one of the smartest men in the sport and usually picks his opponents because he sees a flaw in them which he can exploit. Judging by his record Mayweather has done a very good job of picking his opponent. He holds a perfect career record of 44-0 with 26 knockouts. Mayweather's lack of knockouts isn't due to his lack of power but more so because of persistent hand injuries that forced him to retire after 2007. But Mayweather has never been a fighter who looks for the knockout. He is the best defensive fighter of his generation and arguably of all-time and has lighting fast hands which he uses to counterpunch with amazing accuracy. Unlike most defensive fighters who try to keep fights in the center of the ring where they have space to move their feet Mayweather is very comfortable against the ropes. He spends long stretches of fights against the ropes, luring his opponent in and then using his patent shoulder roll and counterpunching to pick them apart. His most deadly punch, and maybe his fastest is a straight right hand, a punch he used to pick apart Guerrero for 12 rounds. Something Mayweather is known for is starting slow. He usually spends the first 3 rounds dissecting his opponent before he really gets into a groove and takes over the fight. If Alvarez wants to score the historic upset he will need to start fast and never let up.
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| Canelo beats Trout in a good close fight |
While Mayweather has been challenging world class fighters since 2001 when he fought Diego Corrales, Alvarez has only been fighting professionally since 2005. However in that time Alvarez has fought just one less bout than Mayweather and has a career record of 42-0-1 with 30 knockouts. While that record looks great he did spend the first five years of his career fighting mostly bums. Alvarez has also been brought along at a snails pace because Golden Boy Promotions realized they could turn him into a superstar and didn't want to risk him losing. The three biggest fights of Alvarez's career have come in his last three fights when he faced Shane Mosley, Josesito Lopez, and Austin Trout. While those names look good the first two were severely outmatched. Mosley is a faded fighter who had no business being in the ring with Alvarez and Lopez was so outsized that he never really had a chance, although he showed tremendous heart. Finally Alvarez fought a real opponent when he took on the junior middleweight title holder in Trout. While he did drop Trout in the 7th round and won the fight it was closer than most people expected and Trout touched him up early and often. Hopefully Alvarez has learned he needs to improve his defense otherwise Mayweather will pick him apart all night. Another knock against Alvarez is that in the middle rounds he tends to take breathers which is a definite no no against Mayweather. What Alvarez does excel at is body punching. He loves to get on the inside where he can sit down on his punches and rip hooks to the body. While he doesn't have the fastest hands they are quick enough to do damage and his power is deadly. Alvarez likes to walk down his opponents put them on the ropes and go to the body, the problem with that is the fact that Mayweather is so effective fighting against the ropes. Alvarez has said that he has watched the Mayweather-Cotto fight because Cotto fought so well but if he wants to model his own attack after a Mayweather opponent he should look to Shane Mosley who badly hurt Mayweather in their fight back in 2010. Mosley started off fast in that fight and hurt Mayweather in the early rounds, that is a strategy Alvarez needs to copy.
This fight is so intriguing because both fighters are undefeated and that means someone's 0 has to go. While many fans will tune in to watch Mayweather try to stay perfect many more will be tuning in to watch him finally lose. If Alvarez wants to make that happen he has to show up to win, not just collect a career best payday. It should be evident early if Alvarez thinks he can truly win or if he just came to raise his standing in the sport and make a ton of money. If he does believe he can win he will need to start early. While Mayweather is trying to figure him out in the early rounds Alvarez should be going to the body as often as he can. Since Mayweather is 36 years old if Alvarez works the body early it could take Mayweather's legs away later in the fight. If Alvarez starts off slow and gives Mayweather time to figure him out he has no chance of winning the fight. No one has ever had Mayweather as hurt as Mosley did but Alvarez could do even more damage and my drop Mayweather within the first 3 rounds.
PREDICTION: Saul "Canelo" Alvarez will find early success and may drop Floyd Mayweather early but this fight should resemble a harder fought version of Mayweather's fight against Shane Mosley. I expect Mayweather to figure out Alvarez around the 4th round and outbox him the rest of the night. Mayweather will get the win via unanimous decision in a hard fought battle.
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